GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH2018, vol. 19, no. 1, pp. 49-54. https://doi.org/10.21455/gr2018.1-4

UDC 550.34:551.21

Abstract  References   Full text (in Russian)

THE FIRST REAL-TIME APPLICATION OF THE FORMALIZED TECHNIQUE FOR PROBABILISTIC FORECAST: BEZYMIANNY VOLCANO ERUPTIONS

V.A. Saltykov, Yu.A. Kugaenko, P.V. Voropaev

Kamchatka Branch of the Geophysical Survey of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia

Abstract. The new episode of the eruptive activity of the Bezymyanny Volcano in Kamchatka started in 2016. The article demonstrates the precursor situations identified by increasing the level of seismicity and analyzed in real time before three eruptions in November 2016 – March 2017. The application of the formalized forecasting technique developed for the Bezymyanny Volcano using seismic data from 1999 to 2014 [Saltykov, 2016] allows the formulation of the probabilistic forecast of eruptions in real time.

Keywords: Kamchatka, Bezymianny Volcano, precursor, forecasting, earthquake, eruption.

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